(Syndicated to Kansas newspapers Aug. 8, 2016)
It’s probably a little early yet for most Kansans who watched the Kansas House and Senate primary elections to prepare for a dramatic change in culture brewing for the upcoming legislative session.
Yes, there were maybe a dozen House and Senate Republican primaries in which very conservative members were bumped in the primaries by more moderate Republicans. And Democrats, politically correctly, pointed out that some of their most persistent foes are now off the legislative payroll. Relatively good news for them, of course.
But the general election is where the real change happens, and when the long division takes place that determines whether there are going to be the massive tax increases needed to finance the level of state operations that most Kansans want…the more money for schools, for highways, for subsistence and health care for the poor and their children and their grandparents.
Look at the numbers now: In the Senate, there are 32 Republicans and 8 Democrats, in the House the numbers are 97 Republicans and 28 Democrats. But that’s just the view from 30,000 feet in the air.
When it comes down to tough votes on bills that are clear moderate-conservative fights, like tax bills for example, consider that the Senate’s 32-8 becomes about 28-12 as moderate Republicans join Democrats on the rollcall.
In the House, the breakout is probably about 68 or 69 conservatives to maybe 57 or 58 depending on the day and the issues. That’s where the general election may just tip the scales most dramatically—and that is where the leadership of the House and Senate become crucial.
In the Senate, it looks like Sen. Susan Wagle, R-Wichita, will retain her powerful post as president, who can juggle and jiggle the presentation and eventually the content of bills that might, for example, raise income taxes. She’s more moderate than Gov. Sam Brownback, of course, and is probably looking at and will be encouraging a progressive tax rate that will cost the rich more…and maybe in a tradeoff, keep tax rates for the poor relatively stable. It’s a tradeoff made behind closed doors in Republican caucuses there.
In the House, where Speaker Ray Merrick, R-Stilwell, has retired and his office is up for grabs, there may be a more moderate leadership, which in turn will allow more progressive tax policy. Maybe…because even the more moderate Republicans who ousted some of the chamber’s most conservative members in the primary election are so far just talking “tax equity” or such, not using the phrase “tax increase” in their campaigns so far.
Now, of course, there is the low-hanging fruit of those 330,000 or so Kansans who aren’t paying any income taxes, the so-called LLC exemption, that Brownback touted, saw wildly inflated by lawmakers four years ago, and by his signing that bill, became the advocate for the tax break.
Wonder whether he’s going to back off that plan which he still believes is a selling point for state economic prosperity? If so, we have an AM radio we’d like to sell you…
Oh, and without some tax increases, there just isn’t going to be significant money for schools, health, highways, just about everything that we look to the state to finance for us. …and let’s not forget that while many Kansans will gladly get rid of those tax exemptions, low rates for the wealthy and such…it gets a little politically icky to do so retroactively. Say, sometime in April of 2017, lawmakers pass a bill to raise tax rates effective back on New Year’s Day.
Just how quickly there is a major change in social and tax policy? Might be best to start the calculations…after the general election.