(Syndicated to Kansas newspapers Jan. 4, 2016)
While thousands of Kansans probably made New Year’s resolutions to lose weight or learn French—or maybe just remember to put their empty rum and wine bottles in the recycle container in 2016—about 330,000 Kansans have already achieved their resolution.
That’s to not bother paying any Kansas income tax on the 2015 non-wage earnings of their LLC or small corporation or farm profits.
But while we read that most of those New Year’s resolutions last about two weeks, those non-Kansas income taxpayers may have to worry about the next maybe 80 or 90 days for the Kansas Legislature to meet, adjourn and leave them alone for another year.
That might just be possible for a legislative session that is focused on the upcoming elections…unless someone figures out how to get the roughly 550,000 other voters interested in the issue. We’re assuming that the 330,000 income tax- exempt Kansans are a little self-conscious about it, but are smart enough to vote to maintain that status.
Now, that margin, roughly 550,000 Kansas voters who pay taxes and the 330,000 who don’t, becomes a little trickier this session.
The governor says he’s not raising any taxes. Intellectuals and tenured professors maintain that the tax exemption for those businesses is bad for Kansas’ economy, and Gov. Sam Brownback says they’re wrong.
But…with the governor asserting that his signature tax cut plan of 2012, retouched slightly in 2013 and bailed out last year with massive sales tax increases and dramatic paring of the value of longstanding tax deductions, you gotta figure that he’s vetoing any rollback of that tax cut.
Which means, of course, that it’s not just a simple 21 votes in the Senate and 63 votes in the House that get those 330,000 Kansans back in the business of paying income tax. If he’s dead-set against a rollback, then to override a veto it takes 27 Senate votes and 84 House votes.
That would create a showdown that hasn’t been seen since the slap-fight over Brownback’s veto of the bill that required those Internet-summoned Uber taxi drivers to have insurance for their riders, when the Senate mustered a 35-4 vote and the House followed with a 96-25 tally.
So, does the Legislature—not its leaders, but the other elected minions—try for a tax imposition on those 330,000 Kansans? Depends, of course, on who those 330,000 are.
In hindsight, legislators probably ought to have made those who take advantage of the small-business tax exemption declare their political party affiliation or whether they are stalwart Republican primary election voters, which would make the voter reaction to any tax bill predictable on election day.
Makes you wonder whether that tax-free status for those small businesses will last a little longer? Doesn’t it?
Well, lawmakers can’t reach back into just-expired 2015, and 2016 looks a little shaky, this election business and all, so you have to wonder whether there is any half-step possible.
Or…whether this year, that taxless status actually boosts state revenues, through new jobs and buying more equipment to expand their businesses. And, then it turns out that Brownback was right, lower taxes yield a stronger economy and more revenues for the state and more money to spend on education and infrastructure.
But we’re thinking those chances are slim, and it may again come down to pitting income vs. consumption, and the choices there—liquor taxes were rejected last session, though they really aren’t charging what most liquor is worth—and smokers didn’t quit because of the 50-cent a pack hike last session.
Still, most Statehouse habitues are figuring that we’re going to hear more French spoken this year than belts being tightened, while those tax-free Kansans ponder whether they can fit a little bigger car into their garages.